The NFL season has come and gone, and the Philadelphia Eagles have been crowned Super Bowl champions. But what if things had gone completely different around the league?
Razor-thin margins — and a bit of luck — decide so many pivotal moments from every NFL season. This year was no different. An errant kick, a single penalty call, one missed tackle in a crucial moment: that’s all it takes to swing games one way or the other.
Just take a look at our previous power rankings of teams after Week 16. How many games for those top teams came down to a single score?
Now let’s look at some huge moments from the season (and before) and ponder some alternate realities. Sound crazy? Good.
Saquon signs with the Eagles
Nearly a year ago, on March 11, the news broke that former New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley would be signing with the Philadelphia Eagles, their division rival.
What if Barkley never signed with the Eagles?
Philly struggles
Despite Barkley only putting up 57 yards in the Super Bowl, he was, without a doubt, integral to the team’s success the entire season. He averaged 125 yards per game during the regular season, for some perspective. Not to mention, his accumulated total yards between the regular season and the playoffs came to 2,503, the most ever for a running back in a single season.
Barkley accounted for 32.6% of the Eagle’s total yards this season, according to the stats. His landing at a different spot — the Texans, for example — would have left the Eagles scrambling to find someone to fill that spot. Kenneth Gainwell was valuable to the team as Barkley’s backup but he certainly isn’t the same type of athlete to be able to fill that hole.
Say the Eagles decided to draft a rookie running back to help out instead of Cooper DeJean in the second round. DeJean had an electrifying rookie season capped by a pick-six in the Super Bowl. He was a big part of their success this year as well.
Not only would the offense have been hurt, but the Philly defense, which is best in the league by most metrics, could have been worse for it, too.
Someone else thrives
In addition, who knows where Barkley could have taken a team like the Texans had he gone there? He showed enough times this season he can change games in a single play. We might have been talking about the Texans as Super Bowl contenders.
We saw Barkley put up video game numbers (and pull off some video game moves) for the team that ended up taking home the Lombardi trophy. It’s not difficult to see them coming up well short of that without him.
Isaiah Likely is out by a toe
The first game of the season was a nail-biter between two AFC powerhouses: the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.
On the last play of the game, down seven points, the Ravens appear to tie it up with a touchdown pass to Isaiah Likely. After a video review however, it’s determined Likely was just out of bounds on the catch.
What if Likely had been in bounds, and the Ravens go on to win in overtime?
The two teams take different paths
This being the first game of the season means the ripple effects could have been drastic. In this timeline, I don’t see the Ravens also losing the week after to the Raiders. They’d be riding high from beating the defending champs the week before still.
The Chiefs won the first nine games of their season, but starting off with a loss in this version of events means they get off to a rockier start. An extra couple of losses early on for the Chiefs could mean that a team like the Bills or the Ravens end up with the 1-seed come playoff time.
Playoff picture gets a shake-up
With the playoff picture drastically altered as a result, maybe the Bills have it in them this time to finally handle the Chiefs in the playoffs? Or maybe the Ravens punch their ticket to the Super Bowl as the 1-seed with an extra week of rest?
Were we really a toe away from Lamar Jackson, Super Bowl MVP? Sounds ridiculous, but… yeah, it probably is ridiculous.
Jayden Daniels downs the Bears on a walk-off Hail Mary
Week 8 of the NFL had one of the craziest endings to a game all season long. The Washington Commanders had the ball down three to the Chicago Bears. A long way from the end zone with no time left, quarterback Jayden Daniels lets the ball fly.
Noah Brown comes down with it for six points. Game over.
What if that ball ended up on the ground, and the Bears won instead?
The Bears win some games for a change
There are some implications for the rest of the season had that happened. Following this loss, the Bears lost their next nine games. Their head coach, Matt Eberflus, was fired following the sixth loss after some horrific clock mismanagement in their Thanksgiving Day game.
Perhaps avoiding a demoralizing loss such as this one means the Bears have some more life down the stretch? They could have gotten their act together, stringing together a few more wins. Some of those losses were only by one score, after all. In reality, this loss set the tone for the rest of the season for them.
Commanders cool down a bit
As for the Commanders, this could have done just the opposite. A loss to the Bears at such a pivotal moment in the season could have derailed things. This, plus another one or two losses, could have meant a different NFC team getting into the playoffs. If the Seahawks got in, are they handing the Lions a loss in the divisional round? (Short answer: no.)
Such a dramatic finish also helped spotlight Jayden Daniels’ performance as a rookie, too. He kept putting up insane numbers for his first year in the league with the attitude of a seasoned vet. Does falling short here mean Daniels doesn’t quite reach the heights that he did?
Could that have led to — dare I say it — a Bo Nix Offensive Rookie of the Year award? The thought horrifies me.
Okay, enough speculation
Were all these alternate realities possible? Sure. Were they realistic? Definitely not.
So what’s the lesson here? Sign really good players if they become available? Make sure you’re in bounds? Play defense instead of mocking the crowd? (I’m looking at you, Tyrique Stevenson.)
The lesson is simple: pay attention. There could have been 20 different moments included in this list. Teams should be sure they’re ready to be on the right side of the next one that happens.
