Selection Sunday has come. It feels like Christmas every year when the bracket gets announced. As opposed to the last Bracketology update, here are the final Bracket predictions of the season before the official field of 68 comes to fruition.
South Region (Atlanta, GA)
(1) Auburn vs. (16) Alabama State/St. Francis (PA)
(8) Marquette vs. (9) Baylor
Even with losing 3 out of the last four, as well as falling short to Duke earlier in the year, Auburn remains, slightly, the No. 1 overall seed. The Tigers 16 Quad 1 wins, more than anyone in the country, from the best conference in college basketball, deservingly stays here at the top. They’ll face Alabama State from the SWAC or St. Francis (PA) from the Northeast. Marquette has a chance to get to the No. 7 seed line, but the Golden Eagles stay put as a scary No. 8 seed. Marquette will face the up-and-down Baylor Bears from the Big 12. The Bears will be entering the tournament having lost five out of their last eight games. (These games will be played in Lexington, KY)
(5) Louisville vs. (12) Indiana/San Diego State
(4) Maryland vs. (13) High Point
The Cardinals are a tough team to place in the bracket. Louisville has won 21 of their last 23 games and has the edge over another fellow ACC team, Clemson, going 2-0 against the Tigers this season. The Cardinals’ opponent will be either Indiana or San Diego State from the First Four. Maryland is a dangerous team in the tournament and if it wasn’t for a March-like ending against Michigan in the Big Ten tournament semifinals, the Terrapins might’ve won the Big Ten tournament. Kevin Willard’s squad will face the Panthers of High Point, who are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance. (Played in Providence, RI)
(6) Illinois vs. (11) Texas/Utah State
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) UNC Wilmington
Even after a blowout loss in the Big Ten tournament, Illinois 8 Quad 1 wins put them as a rock-solid No. 6 seed. The Fighting Illini will face either Texas or Utah State in the first round. Mark Pope has done a tremendous job with the Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky’s impressive 11-10 record in Quad 1 contests keeps them as a No. 3 seed. The Wildcats will get a date with the Seahawks of UNC Wilmington from the CAA. (Played in Milwaukee, WI)
(7) Saint Mary’s vs. (10) Oklahoma
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Wofford
Saint Mary’s has had a terrific season. They beat Gonzaga twice in the regular season but could not do it a third time in the West Coast Championship game. The Gaels will get a matchup with Oklahoma, a team that pushed themselves on the right side of the bubble after three consecutive Quad 1 wins to end the season. Michigan State has the third most Quad 1 wins in basketball with 13 and took home the regular season crown in the Big Ten. The Spartans face Wofford, who surprised many with their SoCon Championship win. (Played in Cleveland, OH)
East Region (Newark, NJ)
(1) Duke vs. (16) American/Mount St. Mary’s
(8) UConn vs. (9) Mississippi State
In a more typical year, Duke’s regular season and conference tournament victories in the ACC would make them the clear-cut No. 1 overall seed. However, with 7 fewer Quad 1 wins, Duke will settle in as the second-best amongst the No. 1 seeds. The biggest question on Sunday is not about their bracket placement, but on the health of Cooper Flagg and Maliq Brown. American or Mount St. Mary’s will face them after the First Four. The back-to-back National Champion UConn Huskies are a No. 8 seed. Dan Hurley’s Huskies get a matchup with Mississippi State out of the SEC. (Played in Raleigh, NC)
(5) Clemson vs. (12) Drake
(4) Michigan vs. (13) Akron
Clemson has had arguably the best season in program history. Brad Brownell has done a sensational job and has the Tigers on a roll. However, they’ll get what a lot of fans will take as a popular upset pick, in Drake. Drake will enter the tournament at an impressive 30-3 record. In Dusty May’s first season at the helm of the Wolverines, Michigan gets a top-four seed in the bracket after winning the Big Ten Tournament crown. The Zips of Akron represent the MAC for the second straight season. (Played in Seattle, WA
(6) UCLA vs. (11) UC San Diego
(3) Iowa State vs. (14) Robert Morris
UCLA has a better than .500 record in Quad 1 opportunities (9-8). The Bruins may have a down in the Big Ten tournament, but they are still a sleeper team to look out for next week. Similarly to Drake, UC San Diego stands as one of the potential giant killers for the 2024-2025 season. The Tritons have a great NET ranking and hold a 30-4 overall record entering the Big Dance. Iowa State basketball has dealt with injury issues over the past month, but the Cyclones are still a formidable threat, especially when fully healthy. Iowa State faces Robert Morris from the Horizon League in the Round of 64. (Played in Denver, CO)
(7) Gonzaga vs. (10) VCU
(2) Alabama vs. (15) Bryant
Even with a top ten NET Ranking, Gonzaga’s resume doesn’t jump off the screen this time around. Still, they’re once again in the Big Dance and I’m sure nobody wants to face them in the tournament. From one consistent mid-major program to another. The Rams of VCU took home the regular season and conference title in the Atlantic 10. Alabama basketball team gets the No. 2 seed in the East Region, and a potential matchup between them and Duke in the regional final would be terrific television. Bryant rounds out the pod as the No. 15 seed from the America East. (Played in Cleveland, OH)
Midwest Region (Indianapolis, IN)
(1) Houston vs. (16) SIU-Edwardsville
(8) Memphis vs. (9) Georgia
19-1 in the Big 12 is impressive, to say the least. The Houston Cougars had a rocky start to begin the season, but have been as dominant as anyone in America with a now 30-4 record after winning the Big 12 Tournament. They’ll enter the tournament on a 13-game winning streak. Houston faces SIU-Edwardsville from the Ohio Valley Conference. In the 8-9 basketball game, the Memphis Tigers, despite having some big wins and controlling the American Conference, receive a No. 8 seed in large part due to the struggles of the conference it is in. The Tigers’ opponent will be the Georgia Bulldogs from the SEC, who stamped their place in the tournament with multiple important wins. (Played in Wichita, KS)
(5) Purdue vs. (12) Liberty
(4) Texas A&M vs. (13) Lipscomb
Braden Smith has paced the Boilermakers once again. The runner-up from a year ago, Purdue is a No. 5 seed and could be as high as a No. 4 seed on Selection Sunday. The Boilermakers will get a tricky matchup with Liberty from Conference USA. Texas A&M basketball has had an up-and-down back half of the season, but when on, this is a time that can make the Final Four. The Aggies get a matchup with the Lipscomb Bison from the Atlantic Sun. (Played in Seattle, WA)
(6) Ole Miss vs. (11) Colorado State
(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Troy
Ole Miss basketball team had a short stretch there where they were playing inconsistent basketball. Now, that’s not the case and the Rebels look to be in March form. Speaking of March form, there may be no other team playing with as much swagger right now as the Colorado State Rams. The Rams are winners of 10 straight, including the must-win Mountain West Tournament title. Nique Clifford is a player to keep your eye on once the tournament tips off. The Wisconsin Badgers have a dynamic basketball player in John Tonje and he should have the Badgers in good spirits after the Big Ten Tournament. The Trojans of Troy are their opponent from the Sun Belt Conference. (Played in Milwaukee, WI)
(7) Missouri vs. (10) West Virginia
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Montana
The Tigers had a weird ending to the season, but their Top 20 NET Ranking and big-time wins have them AT LEAST as a No. 7 seed. Their opponents…the West Virginia Mountaineers who barely stay in the bracket after a potentially devastating defeat to last-place Colorado in the Big 12 Tournament. Tennessee is the highest-ranked No. 2 seed, and they’ll face the Montana Grizzlies out of the Big Sky Conference. (Played in Lexington, KY)
West Region (San Francisco, CA)
(1) Florida vs. (16) Norfolk State
(8) Creighton vs. (9) New Mexico
The Gators have exceeded expectations and then some. Florida is a No. 1 seed after prevailing over Tennessee in the SEC title game. Florida will enter the tournament having won six in a row, all of which were against Quad 1 teams. In the 8-9 contest, the Bluejays of Creighton who fell to St. John’s in the Big East Tournament final, will face the regular season champs from the Mountain West, the New Mexico Lobos. (Played in Raleigh, NC)
(5) Oregon vs. (12) McNeese
(4) Arizona vs. (13) Yale
Oregon had a shaky middle part to the season, but rebounded nicely with an eight-game winning streak to end the season, before losing to Michigan State in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. The Ducks will face Will Wade’s McNeese Cowboys in the Round of 64. Another former Pac-12 school, Arizona owns a 10-11 in Quad 1 games and sits just outside the top 10 in the NET Rankings. The Wildcats face Yale in the first round. The Bulldogs pulled off an upset in last season’s tournament over Auburn. (Played in Denver, CO)
(6) BYU vs. (11) Vanderbilt
(3) Texas Tech vs. (14) Grand Canyon
BYU has had a remarkable close to the season, with now 8 Quad 1 wins to their name. The Cougars will face Vanderbilt from the SEC, who just barely escapes past the First Four in Dayton. Also from the Big 12, Texas Tech is the top No. 3 seed. The Red Raiders are the only team to have beaten Houston in conference play. They’ll face the Lopes of Grand Canyon from the WAC. It’s the third consecutive season with Grand Canyon in March Madness. (Played in Wichita, KS)
(7) Kansas vs. (10) Arkansas
(2) St. John’s vs. (15) Omaha
This is not Bill Self’s best team, but you still can’t count out the Jayhawks. The preseason No. 1 team has all the potential in the world, but the pieces are just not put together. Bill Self will face a familiar coach in John Calipari, who takes the Razorbacks to the NCAA Tournament in his first season. Continuing on with legendary coaches, Rick Pitino has New York and the college basketball world at the palm of his hands. The Johnnies are the No. 2 seed and will face Omaha from the Summit League. (Played in Providence, RI)
Bubble Watch
Last Four Byes (the last highest-placed teams before the First Four)
- Arkansas
- Oklahoma
- West Virginia
- Vanderbilt
Last Four In (the final At-Large teams selected that’ll be in the First Four)
- Utah State
- Texas
- San Diego State
- Indiana
First Four Out (the first At-Large teams that are out of the bracket)
- Boise State
- Xavier
- North Carolina
- Ohio State
Next Four Out
- Dayton
- UC Irvine
- Villanova
- Wake Forest
What to Watch Out For
The 5-6 seed lines are very tight. Either of the ACC basketball teams (Clemson or Louisville) can sub out for any of the current 6 seeds and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world. BYU is going to be a very interesting team, as they not only have a requirement to not play games on Sunday, but they also turned their season around when it looked like things were going to be dire for the Cougars.
The teams are the No. 1 line are locked in and in that order. Duke fans may think they deserve the top spot over Auburn since they beat them in November, but Auburn’s outrageous number of Quadrant 1 wins is going to be hard to ignore.
And last but not least, the bubble. North Carolina was given a prime opportunity to beat a Cooper Flagg-less Duke team. They did not do that and it would be a surprise and disservice if the Tar Heels find their way into the bracket. The debate of the day will be about the Mountain West and Texas. Will the mid-majors get the upper hand or will the SEC break the record for most bids by a conference with 14? They’ve got 13 for sure, Texas is the team to watch out for.
Stay tuned to Selection Sunday to see the full official bracket and see what aligns with my final bracketology!
