We are just a few days away from College Champ Week, and at Bracketology, the top and bottom of the bracket are taking shape.
The top lines are becoming a clear race, while the bubble is getting tighter and tighter.
A lot has changed since the last update, so let’s not waste any time and dive right into my projected bracket!
South Region (Atlanta, GA)
(1) Auburn vs. (16) Bucknell/Southern
(8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Creighton
Auburn is still clinging on to the No. 1 overall seed even after its most recent loss to Texas A&M. The Tigers hold a commanding 15 Quad 1 wins and have no losses outside that quadrant. They’d face the winner of Bucknell and Southern from the First Four. The 8 vs. 9 matchup in this pod would be tremendous theater. Gonzaga, even with a Top 10 NET Rankings, doesn’t have the best resume to claim a high seed at the moment, while the Creighton Bluejays are a comfortable 9 seed with plenty of room to grow in the coming week. (These games will be played on Thursday and Saturday in Lexington, KY)
(5) Clemson vs. (12) Indiana/Texas
(4) Purdue vs. (13) Chattanooga
Clemson, a team that went to the Elite Eight last season, is even better this year. The Tigers have racked off seven wins in a row and have only 2 losses in ACC play. In this setup, they’d face the winner of Indiana and Texas from the First Four in Dayton. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers of Purdue are steady as a top-four seed with 7 Quad 1 wins and no defeats outside the first two quadrants. The Boilermakers get a date with the Mocs of Chattanooga, who won the regular season in the Southern Conference. (These games will be played on Thursday and Saturday in Providence, RI)
(6) UCLA vs. (11) UC San Diego
(3) Texas A&M vs. (14) Utah Valley
The Bruins quietly have won one of the best resumes in the country, with a 9-7 record against Quad 1 opponents. UCLA will face a dangerous double-digit seed in UC San Diego, who is currently the leader in the Big West Conference. The Tritons are an interesting team to monitor in the weeks to come, as UC San Diego holds a sizable argument to be considered as an at-large selection. Following its huge win over Auburn that snapped a four-game losing streak, Texas A&M is once again in position to climb the ranks as a No. 3 seed. They’ll face Utah Valley from the WAC. (These games will be played on Thursday and Saturday in Denver, CO)
(7) Marquette vs. (10) Georgia
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Robert Morris
Marquette has a very interesting basketball resume. They have a lot of quality wins but have been widely inconsistent in the second half of Big East play. Still, the Golden Eagles are comfortably in the bracket as a dangerous No. 7 seed. They’ll face Georgia from the SEC. The Bulldogs are slowly removing themselves from bubble conversation and look to be a near lock for the tournament. Michigan State is arguably the hottest team in America. The Spartans have the second most Quad 1 wins with 10 and have won five straight games, all of which are against Quad 1 opponents. Tom Izzo’s squad gets Robert Morris out of the Horizon League. (These games will be played on Friday and Sunday in Cleveland, OH)
East Region (Newark, NJ)
(1) Duke vs. (16) Omaha
(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Baylor
Duke basketball team comes in as the second-highest placed team in the bracket despite being one of three teams to beat Auburn. The Blue Devils are dominating ACC opponents, winning seven in a row, and have only lost one conference game ahead of their regular season finale on Saturday. Duke will face Omaha from the Summit League in round one. Mississippi State is a very tricky team to decipher, as the resume is there, but their play as of late hasn’t been great , to say the least. The Bulldogs will battle Baylor from the Big 12. The Bears were teetering with bubble tendencies, but their win at TCU secured them their sixth Quad 1 victory of the season. (These games will be played on Friday and Sunday in Raleigh, NC)
(5) Missouri vs. (12) Drake
(4) Maryland vs. (13) High Point
The Tigers were the laughingstock of the SEC last year, going 0-18 in conference play. Now, they are a surefire lock to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. However, they’ll get a tough matchup with Drake from the Missouri Valley Conference, a team that many are picking to upset a team or two if they were to get a bid. Maryland is one of the country’s most underrated teams, proving that once more last night in a tight win at Michigan. Kevin Willard’s Terrapins will face High Point in the first round. (These games will be played on Thursday and Saturday in Denver, CO)
(6) Louisville vs. (11) West Virginia
(3) St. John’s vs. (14) Jacksonville State
Pat Kelsey has done a hell of a job in his first year at Louisville, guiding them to a rock-solid No. 6 seed. The Cardinals will face West Virginia in the opening round. St. John’s not only has New York at the palm of their hands, but they have put the college basketball world on notice, claiming their first outright Big East regular season title since 1985. Rick Pitino and the Red Storm are going to be a fascinating story to watch unfold once the tournament begins. Jacksonville State will look to pull off the upset. (These basketball games will be played on Thursday and Saturday in Providence, RI)
(7) BYU vs. (10) Utah State
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Central Connecticut
The Cougars of BYU are scorching hot right now. They’re on a seven-game winning streak and are climbing up the ranks faster than anyone. Two weeks ago, the basketball team was hanging onto the bubble. Now, they are locked to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. BYU basketball team will take on Utah State, who, despite a great record, dropped two big road games in a row last week that would’ve clinched them a spot. Tennessee’s loss to Ole Miss drops them back down to the top No. 2 seed. The Vols will take on Central Connecticut from the Northeast Conference. (These games will be played on Thursday and Saturday in Lexington, KY)
Midwest Region (Indianapolis, IN)
(1) Houston vs. (16) Norfolk State
(8) Memphis vs. (9) Vanderbilt
The Cougars’ dominant run in the Big 12 has inserted them as a No. 1 seed for the time being. Houston will get Norfolk State from the MEAC in the first round. Memphis, despite commanding the American Athletic Conference, is a tough team to place as the conference has been lackluster, to say the least. The Tigers are a quality team, though ,and they’ll be under-seeded on Selection Sunday. Memphis has a date with Vanderbilt, who has shocked many within the SEC. The Commodores will be looking for 10 wins in SEC play on Saturday.
(5) Oregon vs. (12) McNeese
(4) Kentucky vs. (13) Akron
After losing five basketball games in a row, things looked dire for the Ducks. Now, Oregon are winners of six straight and are once again climbing up the seed line with 8 Quad 1 wins to show for it. The Ducks will take on Will Wade’s dangerous McNeese Cowboys. Kentucky’s 9-9 record in Quad 1 led them to a No. 4 seed with room to grow. The Wildcats will face the Zips of Akron, who have controlled the MAC since conference play began. (These games will be played on Friday and Sunday in Seattle, WA)
(6) Illinois vs. (11) San Diego State
(3) Texas Tech vs. (14) Northern Colorado
Illinois was entering a bit of dangerous territory after multiple losses in a row. After some more wins, including a big Quad 1 win at Michigan, the Fighting Illini are once again in a comfortable position. San Diego State’s second loss of the season to UNLV is troubling and puts the Aztecs in a position where they now have to win at least one more game to solidify their place in the field of 68. The Red Raiders of Texas Tech are the top No. 3 seed and are extremely close to being on the two-line. Northern Colorado is their opponent from the Big Sky. (These basketball games will be played on Thursday and Saturday in Wichita, KS)
(7) Kansas vs. (10) VCU
(2) Alabama vs. (15) Bryant
Although it started as a promising basketball season as the preseason No. 1 team, it has rapidly turned into a major disappointment, as the Jayhawks can not get any consistent footing and are in danger of slipping even further. Kansas will face a familiar tournament foe in the Rams of VCU from the Atlantic 10 Conference. Alabama’s second straight loss leaves them with a larger gap in getting back to the one-seed line. The Crimson Tide will face Bryant from the America East in the first round.
West Region (San Francisco, CA)
(1) Florida vs. (16) Quinnipiac/Southeast Missouri State
(8) UConn vs. (9) New Mexico
The Gators were briefly slated to be a No. 2 seed in this update until their big win at Alabama, coupled with Tennessee’s loss. Florida is legit, and that’ll get the winner of Quinnipiac and Southeast Missouri State from the First Four games. The back-to-back National Champion UConn Huskies own a complicated resume but are still not to be underestimated in the Big Dance. The Huskies will battle the leaders of the pack in the Mountain West Conference, the New Mexico Lobos. (These games will be played on Friday and Sunday in Raleigh, NC)
(5) Michigan vs. (12) Yale
(4) Arizona vs. (13) Lipscomb
The Wolverines are in a slight slump right now, but they still have the resume to back up their placement as a No. 5 seed. They’ll get an interesting matchup with resident Giant Killer, Yale. Arizona clings on to a top 4 seed thanks to a Top 10 NET Ranking and 7 Quad 1 wins. The Wildcats will face Lipscomb from the Atlantic Sun Conference. (These games are playing this Friday and Sunday in Seattle, WA)
(6) Saint Mary’s vs. (11) Arkansas/Boise State
(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Towson
Nobody is talking about Saint Mary’s, and I don’t understand why. They have steamrolled through the West Coast Conference, and their style of play will make them a tough out in the tournament. The Gaels will take on the winner of Arkansas and Boise State from the First Four in Dayton. Wisconsin’s 15-7 record in Quad 1 and 2 games leads them to a No. 3 seed, as the Badgers draw Towson from the CAA. (These games are playing this Friday and Sunday in Milwaukee, WI)
(7) Ole Miss vs. (10) Ohio State
(2) Iowa State vs. (15) South Alabama
The Rebels earned an enormous win over Tennessee this past Wednesday. The win gives Ole Miss some room to grow through the SEC Tournament next week. Ole Miss gets a matchup with a 17-13 Ohio State squad that has 6 Quad 1 victories. Iowa State from the Big 12 is hanging onto the final No. 2 seed. The Cyclones finish out the bracket with a bout against the Sun Belt’s South Alabama Jaguars. (These games will be played on Friday and Sunday in Milwaukee, WI)
Bubble Watch
Last Four Byes (the last highest-placed teams before the First Four)
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- West Virginia
- San Diego State
Last Four In (the final At-Large teams selected that’ll be in the First Four)
- Arkansas
- Boise State
- Indiana
- Texas
First Four Out (the first At-Large teams that are out of the bracket)
- Oklahoma
- North Carolina
- Nebraska
- Xavier
Next Four Out
- SMU
- Cincinnati
- Colorado State
- Villanova
Other Teams Considered
- Dayton
- Wake Forest
- Northwestern
- George Mason
- San Francisco
- Pittsburgh
- UC Irvine
- TCU
- Bradley
What to Watch Out For
Multiple mid-major conferences have begun their conference tournaments. In every conference, whoever wins their respective conference tournament gets an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. Make sure to keep an eye on the Missouri Valley, as Drake needs to at least make the Championship game in order to hang onto its at-large hopes.
On the final regular basketball season weekend, Arkansas has a massive game against Mississippi State that, in my eyes, can lock them up a bit. Also, in the SEC, Alabama visits Auburn. Auburn would like a win to secure their place as the top overall seed, while Alabama needs a win to try and stay in contention for a No. 1 seed. In addition to that, Oklahoma and Texas battle in a bubble showdown that could have massive implications if either team hears their name called on Selection Sunday.
Speaking of bubble-on-bubble crime, Ohio State and Indiana collide in a late Saturday afternoon clash.
Finally, college basketball’s biggest rivalry headlines a massive opportunity for North Carolina. UNC is in a must-win situation against Duke at Chapel Hill. A win over the Blue Devils will give North Carolina their 2nd Quad 1 win.
