It’s the middle of February, and you can already hear madness in the air. The 2025 NCAA Tournament is shaping up to be a highly competitive and unpredictable month-long spectacle.
With Bracketology, I will predict what I think the NCAA Tournament would/should look like as of February 14. Of course, these brackets are very fluid as games continue to be played across the country. Up until Selection Sunday (March 16), there will be updates regarding the bracket and where teams stand within the field.
Without further ado, let’s dive right in!
South Region (Atlanta, GA)
(1) Auburn vs. (16) Omaha/Southern
(8) Oregon vs. (9) Utah State
Right now, Auburn is the top team in the country with an unreal 13 Quad 1 wins, five more than the next-best team. They’ll play the winner of the First Four matchup on Tuesday between Omaha and Southern. Despite a promising start, Oregon has faltered in recent weeks, losing five of their last six games. Utah State, at 22-3, has been a consistent force throughout the season.
(5) Marquette vs. (12) McNeese
(4) Michigan vs. (13) Akron
Marquette has simmered down recently, but they still own a strong 5-4 record against Quad 1 opponents. McNeese is having another great season under Will Wade, as the Cowboys are running a buzzsaw through the Southland Conference. Michigan is playing its best basketball of the season with five consecutive wins. However, Akron wouldn’t be an easy matchup, as the Zips have won 12 in a row, the only undefeated team in the MAC during conference play.
(6) Maryland vs. (11) Texas
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Towson
The Maryland Terrapins are becoming road warriors in the Big Ten. Three of their six Quad 1 wins have come on the road, all in the conference. Despite a 4-8 conference record in the SEC, Texas is just barely clinging on to one of the final non-First Four slots of the bracket, thanks in large part to three Quad 1 victories with no bad losses. Kentucky has been up and down in January and February, but the Wildcats picked up a huge home win this past Tuesday and own the second most Quad 1 wins in basketball with eight. Towson leads the pack in the CAA of 11 straight dubs.
(7) Clemson vs. (10) Nebraska
(2) Houston vs. (15) North Alabama
The final pod in the South Region presents an intriguing first-round matchup between Clemson and Nebraska. The Tigers are getting hot at the right time, having won eight of their last nine contests. Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers have turned their season around after six straight losses in Big Ten play. Houston’s #3 standing in the NET and 12-1 record in the Big 12 land them a two seed. North Alabama’s high-powered offense will look to play spoiler against the Cougars.
Midwest Region (Indianapolis, IN)
(1) Alabama vs. (16) Merrimack
(8) Louisville vs. (9) New Mexico
After this weekend, Alabama may move up to the top overall seed after their dream Iron Bowl of Basketball collision with Auburn. For now, though, the top offensive team in the country will take the top seed in the Midwest. They’ll go up against Merrimack out of the NEC. Louisville has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, as Pat Kelsey’s program has the Cardinals comfortably in the field. A matchup with New Mexico’s sensational offense would be a delight.
(5) Michigan State vs. (12) Yale
(4) Kansas vs. (13) Arkansas State
The Spartans, after a lack of marquee wins in non-conference play, have stepped it up in Big Ten action, a stretch that was included in their 13-game winning streak. The perennial upset merchant Yale Bulldogs would serve as a tantalizing matchup against Michigan State. Kansas, after starting the season as the preseason number one team, has been playing 50-50 ball for a month now. Arkansas State is one of the rare true mid-major teams with a Quad 1 win. They’ve gone 3-2 in Quad 1/2 play combined.
(6) Missouri vs. (11) Drake
(3) Arizona vs. (14) Northern Colorado
After winning zero SEC games last season, Missouri has emerged as a safe bet to be in the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs of Drake are this season’s mid-major darling. At 23-2, Drake is not just here because they’re at the top of the Missouri Valley conference, but also because they are a surefire bubble team if things keep up. Arizona started the season slow but has regrouped fairly well, all the way up to the three-seed line. Northern Colorado just barely holds the Big Sky automatic qualifier in the standings.
(7) Mississippi State vs. (10) San Diego State
(2) Purdue vs. (15) Cleveland State
Mississippi State’s current slump shouldn’t take away from the incredible job Chris Jans has done in Starkville. The runner-up from two tournaments ago, San Diego State, is in a precarious situation this time around, but they still are sneakily in the field for now, avoiding the first four games. Meanwhile, last year’s runner-up Purdue is doing better than anyone could’ve expected, as the Boilermakers own seven Quad 1 and seven Quad 2 wins. It would be their third straight season as a top-two seed in March. Cleveland State, from the Horizon League, round out the final pod of the Midwest Region.
East Region (Newark, NJ)
(1) Duke vs. (16) Southeast Missouri State/American University
(8) Saint Mary’s vs. (9) Baylor
Freshman phenom Cooper Flagg and the Duke Blue Devils 16-game win streak (including a win over Auburn) just came to an end at the hands of Clemson. Still, Duke is locked in as a 1 seed as they lead the race in the ACC thus far. They’ll face the winner of Southeast Missouri State and American in the First Four matchup on Wednesday. Saint Mary’s is doing it once again and has a relatively strong resume that should remove them from bubble contention in the bracket. Baylor has had a rollercoaster of a season, but the Bears have some strong wins and no bad losses on their resume.
(5) St. John’s vs. (12) George Mason
(4) Illinois vs. (13) High Point
Rick Pitino and the Red Storm are dominating in the Big East and are now ranked in the top ten of the AP Top 25. They would get a tough challenge in this bracket, as George Mason’s ninth-best defense in all of college basketball will be a lot to handle. Illinois continues to display a high-powered, high-energy offense despite departures, and High Point is one of the funniest teams to watch this season. An Illinois vs. High Point matchup may break the scoreboard.
(6) Memphis vs. (11) Oklahoma/Vanderbilt
(3) Texas Tech vs. (14) UNC Greensboro
The Tiger’s tough non-conference schedule and 10 Quad 1/2 wins present Penny Hardaway’s club with his best team since taking over. They’ll face Oklahoma or Vanderbilt in a battle of SEC teams in the First Four, showing the strength of the SEC once more. Texas Tech’s meteoric rise has been fascinating to watch and UNC Greensboro has the slightest lead in the Southern Conference over last year’s conference champion, Samford.
(7) UConn vs. (10) West Virginia
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Central Connecticut
The two-time National Champions have had their fair share of up and down moments this season, but the Huskies are still a team that no one wants to face come March. West Virginia has begun to slip over the past few weeks, but the talent is there to get the Mountaineers past the hurdle. Tennessee holds firm as a strong number 2 seed, and Central Connecticut has been great in NEC play and they even have a Quad 2 win to their name.
West Region (San Francisco, CA)
(1) Florida vs. (16) Bryant
(8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Ohio State
To continue, not a lot of people expected Florida to be a projected number 1 seed in February, but here we are. The Gators are one of the more versatile teams in the country. They’ll get Bryant from the America East Conference in the first round. Meanwhile, Gonzaga is not your typical high seed this season, but their strong NET ranking keeps them solidly in the field. Ohio State, despite 10 losses on the season, has the resume and strength of schedule to cement the Buckeye’s spot in the bracket.
(5) Ole Miss vs. (12) UC Irvine
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Jacksonville State
Outside of a three-game losing streak, Ole Miss has been consistent through the season and remains a popular dark horse pick when March comes around. Speaking of consistency, UC Irvine is a mid-major juggernaut at this point, as the Anteaters are serving up another terrific season. The Badgers will go as far as John Tonje takes them and by the looks of it, a 4 seed may just be the beginning. Meanwhile, Jacksonville State has collected three Quad 2 wins and is narrowly at the top of Conference USA.
(6) UCLA vs. (11) Arkansas/VCU
(3) Iowa State vs. (14) Utah Valley
UCLA is on an absolute roll right now and they are looking like a team that will continue to climb up the seed lines. They’ll get the winner of Arkansas and VCU in the final First Four matchup. Also in this pod, Iowa State is rebounding nicely after a tough little stretch earlier this month. A pesky Utah Valley team meets them in the Round of 64.
(7) Creighton vs. (10) BYU
(2) Texas A&M vs. (15) Norfolk State
If the Bluejays can stay healthy, Creighton has all the tools to make a splash in the NCAA Tournament. BYU is squarely on the bubble, but a road win over West Virginia jumps them onto the ride side of the bracket. Texas A&M is on fire right now and their wins speak for themselves. The Aggies are the fifth SEC team to round out the 1 and 2 lines of the tournament field. Norfolk State is their first-round opponent from the MEAC.
Bubble Watch
Last Four Byes (the last highest-placed teams before the First Four)
- BYU
- West Virginia
- San Diego State
- Texas
Last Four In (the final At-Large teams selected that’ll be in the First Four)
- Vanderbilt
- Oklahoma
- VCU
- Arkansas
First Four Out (the first At-Large teams that are out of the bracket)
- Georgia
- Boise State
- SMU
- UC San Diego
Next Four Out
- Cincinnati
- North Carolina
- Kansas State
- Wake Forest
Others Teams Considered
- Xavier
- Villanova
- Indiana
- USC
- Pittsburgh
- San Francisco
- Dayton
- TCU
What to Watch Out For
The No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup between rivals Auburn and Alabama will play a major part in who holds the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament come the next Bracketology update.
Also, Arkansas and Vanderbilt have massive bubble opportunities at Texas A&M and Tennessee respectively. Houston and Arizona collide in a matchup between the top two Big 12 teams. And North Carolina is in desperation mode in a must-win game against Syracuse on the road.
The best time of the year is kicking into high gear…get ready for a huge slate of weekend action!
