After years of changes to the football landscape finally in effect, it is nearly time to put the NCAA’s heavyweights to the test. One of the biggest changes this season ushered in the expanded 12-team playoff bracket.
Although intended to encourage parity between teams and give more opportunity to all Power Four conferences, this season has shown the opposite to be true. Currently, the Big Ten and SEC, two of the most powerful conferences in the NCAA, hold nine out of twelve playoff spots.
Taking up 75% of the post-season real estate is not just a statement- it’s total domination. This begs the question: is victory all but guaranteed to go to one of these conferences?
Let’s examine what has made these conferences formidable this year.
Conference Standings
When wondering how these two have stayed on top, look no further than each conference’s standings. According to ESPN, the Big 10 holds four top 25 spots in its conference: Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State. This respectable number is on par with other Power Five conferences.
However, this is nowhere close to the nine Top 25 spots the SEC holds such as no. 3 Texas. On paper, the SEC should be able to wipe the floor with the Big Ten or any conference with that group.
Despite the clear majority the SEC holds, the Big Ten has one key-ranked opponent: the number-one team, Oregon. To add more fire to the fuel, the Big Ten is the only conference with two undefeated teams left, no. 1 Oregon and no. 5 Indiana. The stats don’t lie- elite teams come from the southeast or the north (maybe the coast in Oregon’s case).
Strength of Schedule
There is no better evidence for the SEC’s dominance than the playoff committee’s preemptive playoff rankings. Georgia and Alabama push ACC’s SMU and Mountain West’s Boise State into the playoff berth hunt despite having better records than both teams and being undefeated in conference play.
Some may look at those records and scratch their heads, but there is only one explanation: strength of schedule. If anything, a team’s ranking is not determined by the number of wins per se, but rather by who their opponent was.
To a playoff committee, an undefeated Boise State may sound nice until you look at who they beat (sorry San Diego State). On the other hand, a 7-2 Alabama has 7 hard-earned wins against eight other top-ranked opponents. Despite the NCAA’s egalitarian intents for an expanded playoff, the message is clear: the powerful only become more powerful.
Money Talks: NIL Revenue
Since 2021, NIL has thrown college football into madness. Universities can no longer leverage historical success and good coaching as enticing offers. In today’s landscape, only a dollar amount can bring in and keep elite talent. In a report conducted by Opendorse, the projected NIL revenue for the 2024-2025 season is $1.67 billion.
Although exact amounts earned are kept under raps, let’s break these projections this down even further:
Eight of the Top 10 public universities that took Collective Funding (booster/NIL money) were from the Big Ten or SEC. Texas rang in number one with its prediction of nearly $22.3 million. Ohio State and LSU are not far off with their own just over $20 million.
It is worth noting that these are all calculations, however, Ohio State is a confirmed amount that athletic director Ross Bjork has reported to Yahoo Sports. It was claimed OSU would need “at least $13 million” to maintain its roster, which it did and then some.
Looking beyond teams, players such as Texas’ quarterbacks Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning are reportedly worth a collective $5.2 million. Alabama’s quarterback Jalen Milroe is worth an estimated $2.2 million in NIL valuation (On3.com). Is it no coincidence that six out of ten of those teams currently reside in the Top 25? And all six are from either conference? It is undeniable that the SEC and Big Ten have taken advantage of what the NIL has to offer.
Clash Between Titans: Scheduling
As if in-conference competition wasn’t enough, these powerhouses are looking to schedule more meetups in the coming seasons. The goal is twofold: increase schedule strength while simultaneously earning record revenue. Being the richest and deepest of the Power Four conferences has initiated talks of playing 12-16 non-conference games throughout the season.
Look no further than viewership for headlining matchups such as Michigan- Texas which brought in 9.35 million viewers. Week one saw USC- LSU reach 8.62 million viewers. Numbers like these are not accidental- people want to watch these powerhouses go at it. They are hungry for it, and commissioners know this.
So why not open the arena to more carnage, glitz, and glamour?
The Big Ten and SEC commissioners Tony Petitti and Greg Sankey seem keen on the idea. For one thing, it would strengthen each conference’s schedules without damaging their respective conference standings.
These games could be uniquely marketed as can’t-miss showdowns. Forget the questions this poses about how revenue would be distributed or the impact of non-conference in the post-season. This indicates a whole new ball game; one that enables the powerful to become more powerful.
What Now?
Although both commissioners act quickly to dismiss claims about “collusion” in support of megaconferences, this alignment suggests a shift amid the new era. A landscape that not only supports but encourages an arms race between the Big Ten and SEC. Pouring more money into these programs has only strengthened the competition between those who are already powerful.
Despite the hopes of increasing parity and more opportunity, does this just widen the college football gap? Sure, more money has made elite teams, and elite teams going head-to-head makes for entertaining football. But at what cost, or with what end goal in mind? If anything, The Big Ten and SEC’s dominance has cemented their claim as the only national champion contenders, not leveling the playing field. Let this post-season be a test to see who may, or may not, come out on top.
