After a strong year in cinema, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and has announced what films it considers some of the best of the year. This year, I paid strict attention to the races, and I had a good sense of what would be nominated for the 98th Academy Awards.
I was mostly correct, but there were some surprises that I did not see coming. With that said, let’s get into the nominations and what stood out.
Best Picture
Honestly, none of the nominees for best picture shocked me. I had a good sense that “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sentimental Value” and “Sinners” would be nominated. “Bugonia” and “Train Dreams” also seemed likely to get in, which left two slots open. I suspected another international film would get nominated, and I thought it would be “It Was Just an Accident.” However, another international film, “The Secret Agent,” made it instead, which wasn’t all too shocking after it’s strong showing at the Golden Globe Awards. The last spot I predicted would go to “F1,” but I thought that “Weapons,” “Blue Moon” and “Jay Kelly” were strong contenders too. Alas, “F1” held the final slot.
Seven of the 10 nominees were on my top 10 list so they were definitely deserving. I can’t say anything about “The Secret Agent” since I haven’t seen it yet. “Train Dreams” was in my top 15, so I don’t think it is all that undeserving, but it does feel like a movie Oscars voters love more than general audiences. As for “F1,” it is a controversial pick, even though most people liked the film. It is a pretty stereotypical blockbuster, similar to “Superman,” and didn’t stand out all that much when it came out. While I enjoyed the movie, it was outside even my top 20 of the year, and I am a bit surprised that Academy voters liked it so much. Overall, I wasn’t surprised by the nominees, but I do think another movie should’ve gotten nominated as opposed to “F1.”
Acting Awards
The acting awards had some surprises and at least one unexpected nomination in each category. For best actor, I thought Jesse Plemons would get nominated for “Bugonia.” Instead, Ethan Hawke got in for his portrayal as Lorenz Hart in “Blue Moon,” which wasn’t a big upset. Best actress, on the other hand, was a bit more surprising, especially with one of the nominees. I did not expect Kate Hudson’s nomination for “Song Sung Blue,” especially since she took out Chase Infiniti to get the spot. “One Battle After Another” getting snubbed in an acting category was unexpected, much less by a movie that most people seemingly ignored despite its recent release. That said, I don’t expect either Hawke or Hudson to win the awards, but these veterans getting some recognition is not surprising, given the Academy’s tendency to reward more experienced actors.
The supporting categories, however, had some even bigger shocks. Best supporting actress was the first category announced. Elle Fanning for “Sentimental Value” was a bit of a surprise, especially since Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas was also for the same movie. While I thought Fanning could get in, I thought either Odessa A’zion for “Marty Supreme” or Ariana Grande for “Wicked: For Good” would get nominated, but Fanning (deservingly) got the spot.
As for best supporting actor, I was pretty confident that the lineup would be: Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn for “One Battle After Another,” Jacob Elordi for “Frankenstein,” Stellan Skarsgård for “Sentimental Value” and Paul Mescal for “Hamnet.” Yet, Mescal missed, and instead, Delroy Lindo received the nomination for his role in “Sinners.” I can’t express how out of left field this was, especially since his role is fairly small, even for a supporting role, while Mescal was the perfect companion for Jessie Buckley in “Hamnet.” I thought that Adam Sandler in “Jay Kelly” or even Miles Caton in “Sinners” would be nominated before Lindo, but alas, he shocked everyone and made it.
Screenplay and Directing Awards
Going into some of the other major awards, let’s start with best director. Paul Thomas Anderson, Ryan Coogler and Chloé Zhao were shoo-ins to get in, and they all did. I thought Joachim Trier had the edge to get in, and he likewise did. For the last spot, I predicted Jafar Panahi mostly because of how he filmed “It Was Just an Accident.” He filmed it in secret since he is banned from filmmaking by the Iranian government due to his stance against the Khameini regime. That said, the Academy voters did not feel the same as they nominated Josh Safdie for “Marty Supreme.”
For best original screenplay, I thought the last spot would go to “Sorry, Baby” since it was one of the most unique screenplays of the year. I thought if it did not make it, “The Secret Agent,” “Weapons” or “Jay Kelly” could make it in. “Blue Moon” was a complete shock and a pick I’m pretty unsure of. I felt the movie was a bit dull at times, though strong dialogue likely carried it to the nomination. Best adapted screenplay went as expected, no major surprises there.
Other Awards
Best casting was a bit difficult to predict since it is a brand-new category. I did correctly predict “One Battle After Another,” “Marty Supreme” and “Sinners,” but missed on “Hamnet” and “The Secret Agent.” However, I am a bit surprised “Sentimental Value” didn’t make it, given how many acting nominations it got.
Best cinematography was fairly easy to predict, as the last two spots were between “Hamnet” and “Marty Supreme.” I expected “Hamnet” but “Marty Supreme” ultimately got the nod. Best visual effects was the category that threw me for a loop. I correctly predicted “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” “F1”, and “Sinners” would get a nomination. I also expected “Frankenstein” and “Superman” to make it. However, best visual effects managed to get two films in its category that I had not even thought about getting nominations. “Jurassic World Rebirth” was quite the shock, given that the movie wasn’t received all that well. The last movie in the franchise to get this award was “The Lost World: Jurassic Park” back in 1998. Additionally, “The Lost Bus” came out of nowhere to get a nomination, as I had barely heard of this movie.
To wrap up the other big surprises, I did not expect “One Battle After Another” to get into best sound or production design, but it seems the strength of the movie got it through. “Wicked: For Good” and “No Other Choice” surprisingly received no nominations. I thought “Wicked: For Good” could get up to five nominations: costume design, makeup and hairstyling, original song, production design and supporting actress. I know the movie wasn’t received as well as its predecessor, but the production quality was just as good. “No Other Choice” was a surprising miss, especially in the best international film category.
Final Thoughts
Now I’ve avoided the elephant in the room: “Sinners” getting a record-breaking 16 nominations. While I expected it to break the former record of 14 nominations, it got even more than I expected. It is a very well-done film throughout and has no weak spots, so it makes sense. Will this translate to it winning lots of awards? Probably not to be honest. It did well in a lot of things, but only mastered a few things. I do think it will ultimately win best cinematography, original screenplay and score. It could win casting and production design, perhaps sneaking another win. That said, it will likely end up short for Best Picture to “One Battle After Another.”
While the nominations are interesting, a few of the top categories are pretty much locked in. “One Battle After Another” will win best picture and adapted screenplay, and Anderson will win best director. Buckley is the clear frontrunner for best actress and would need to lose at multiple other award shows to lose that status. I also think “Sinners” is the strong frontrunner for best original screenplay.
For the more uncertain categories, Chalamet is the frontrunner for best actor, but if DiCaprio wins some awards, he could be in the driver’s seat. Supporting actress is sort of up in the air in part because all except Fanning have won the award from some notable organizations, but I think Teyana Taylor is the frontrunner because of her Golden Globes win. Best supporting actor is anyone’s game except Lindo. The race was expected to be between del Toro and Penn, but it seems being in the same movie has hurt them at the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards and the Golden Globe Awards, which led to Elordi and Skarsgård’s wins, respectively. The next few weeks may give us a better picture or may lead to more uncertainty.
Overall, there were some pretty big surprises, be it specific awards or just how many awards some movies got. The winner of the day was clearly “Sinners,” which now has high standards to meet, given its record-breaking performance. “One Battle After Another” shows it is clearly in frontrunner status, and “F1” should be happy for its best picture nomination. As for the losers, “Wicked: For Good” and “No Other Choice” getting nothing has to sting, while “No Other Accident” missing out on several awards hurts too. With the most prestigious body of film critics announcing its top nominees of the year, we have entered the midst of awards season.
