In recent months, tensions are mounting worldwide. With Trump launching an attack on Iran’s nuclear program, many have become concerned with the potential of another world war. With fear-mongering content on social media that is fed by algorithms, it can be hard to discern how looming the threat of war actually is.
In 1968, sixty one countries signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. By signing the NPT, the member states pledged cooperation and transparency in sharing information on nuclear weaponry.
Despite the sweeping popularity of the agreement, it did not dissuade nations from building their nuclear programs. In order to understand the complicated facets of nuclear unrest, the history of nuclear warfare must be understood.
The past informs the future. Fortunately, the future of global diplomacy may not be as dark as it seems on your instagram feed.
The Atomic Bomb is Born
The first atomic bomb was detonated in New Mexico, US, in 1945. Soon after, the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Japan in Hiroshima and Nagasaki as part of WWII.
Atomic bombs are created in a process called nuclear fission which uses the radioactive element, Uranium. Enriched uranium is used to make nuclear weapons.
Initially, the American public was in overwhelming support of the use of the atomic bomb. When people began to see the catastrophic impacts of the weapon, that support quickly faltered.
Hundreds of thousands of people were killed by the atomic bombs and their fallout. These deaths include those who did directly from the bombings as well as those who died from the effects, such as cancer from the radiation.
In the time following the bombings, international actors were quick to condemn the US for their use of nuclear weaponry. Much of Latin America, Russia, Sweden, and many more countries were quick to call for the ban of nuclear weaponry.
The US was not formally punished on the international scale for the use of the atomic bomb.
The NPT and its guidelines
The purpose of the Non-Proliferation treaty is to dissuade countries from expanding the use of nuclear weaponry and also ensures they’re transparent about the use of nuclear programs. The treaty, which entered into roce in 1970, consists of 191 member states.
Non-Proliferation refers to the prevention or limitation of something. Under the treaty, countries that had pre-existing programs at the time they joined the agreement pledged not to expand their programs. They also acknowledged that they cannot help a non-proliferated country build a nuclear arsenal.
Countries that did not have existing nuclear programs at the time of their signature had to agree that they would not pursue creating nuclear weaponry. According to the treaty, if a party had created or detonated a nuclear weapon prior to Jan 1. 1967, they are considered to be a nuclear-weapon party. Anything after that date was considered to be a non-nuclear weapon actor.
Since the creation of the NPT, there have also been a series of further negotiations between specific states to make expectations more clear.
Cold War Era
The creation of the NPT occurred amidst the Cold War, a period marked by its decades of tension and looming risk of nuclear warfare between the United States and the Soviet Union.
Despite Russia and the US being members of the Non-Proliferation treaty, both actors were known to have active nuclear programs.
The Cuban missile crisis put the two nations and their dedication to nuclear peace to the test. In October 1962 the United States failed a coup attempt to overtake the cuban government, and the soviet union secretly and strategically placed missiles on the island that were capable of reaching the United States. This is the closest the two nations ever got to true nuclear warfare.
President Kennedy issued a quarantine of the US navy in Cuba, creating a blockade, which amped up the severity of the situation. The crisis lasted around two weeks, and the threat of nuclear attacks loomed the entire time.
When the two countries reached the brink of conflict, they both opted to slow the nuclear arms race and began to negotiate agreements to ban nuclear testing. Despite the intentions to slow the arms race, cold war tensions continued for nearly 3 more decades. The Cold War ended at the fall of the Soviet Union.
Although the Cold War did not involve direct nuclear warfare between the US and the Soviets, proxy wars did take place.
Rejecting the NPT
Four countries never signed the Treaty: India, Israel, Pakistan, and South Sudan. In addition to these states, North Korea withdrew from the agreement in 2003.
India’s decision to not sign the agreement was not about disagreement with its purpose, but they found the treaty to be unfair to certain nations. To India, the agreement was flawed and did not proportionately represent each of the member states. Since their rejection of the agreement, they have not opted to ratify the agreement.
Pakistan, like India, raised concerns about military misalignment with the US and the west. Their decision to not sign the agreement relied heavily on skepticism about the member states ability to maintain what was outlined in the treaty. Pakistan ultimately decided to opt out of the agreement voicing concerns about inherent loopholes, especially that it does not call for the complete codification of nuclear weapons.
South Sudan, which separated from Sudan in 2011, has not signed the NPT and has reportedly been absent from UN negotiations regarding the treaty. It is unclear whether they will eventually choose to ratify the agreement.
Israel did not sign the NPT because it wanted to maintain nuclear opacity, meaning they do not want to confirm or deny if they maintain a nuclear program. Although it is unconfirmed, it is believed that they still do control a nuclear arsenal. Benjamin Netanyahu, the current Israeli Prime Minister, has been an opponent of nuclear treaties during his time in office. To Israel, nonproliferation treaties are not conducive to creating peace in the region. There have not been any confirmed nuclear tests in Israel, but there has been speculation in recent years about secret weaponry programs with the Israeli military.
What does this mean for today?
Nuclear warfare is no more imminent than it ever has been, the world is just more connected. As more people worldwide gain access to the internet, social media, and much more – access to information is easier than ever.
Social media allows for people globally to receive breaking news at the touch of their hands, in a matter of minutes.
Nonetheless, global tensions ebb and flow constantly. The Cold War offers precedence for careful cooperation even in times of political unrest.
Most recently, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has been open about nuclear testing in Russia. He has also warned that if conflict in Ukraine continues, he may have to pull from his nuclear arsenal.
The Associated Press reported in May that Putin told Russian television, “There has been no need to use those (nuclear) weapons … and I hope they will not be required.”
Last month, Donald Trump decided to make attacks on Iran’s nuclear programs. Diplomacy is ever changing and quickly evolving. It is hard to say what the future will bring, but experts are stressing that if world leaders continue to ignore tensions without negotiation, then war is inevitable.
A conference at the University of Chicago was held in early July to discuss diplomacy in the current world and experts had one takeaway: “World leaders must return to diplomacy now to stave off nuclear war.”
Historically, the threat of nuclear war has deterred nations from engaging in violent attacks. The arms race has always existed, but it is evolving.
