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Predictions For the 2025 MTV Video Music Awards

The 2025 MTV Video Music Awards are right around the corner. Here’s what you need to know about this year’s nominees, performers, and more!

Graphic depicting MTV VMA nominees Alex Warren, Sabrina Carpenter, and Lady Gaga.
Image by Jillian Geppi/Trill. (Shutterstock)

Fans are bursting with anticipation as today’s biggest names in music soon gather live in New York’s UBS Arena for the 2025 MTV Video Music Awards.

Hosted by award-winning artist LL Cool J and complete with several showstopping performances, this year’s show features 19 fan categories and six professional categories. Frontrunner Lady Gaga leads this year’s nominees with nominations across 12 categories, including Artist of the Year. Trailing closely behind is Bruno Mars with 11 nominations, followed by Kendrick Lamar with 10, Sabrina Carpenter with 9, ROSÉ with 8, and Ariana Grande and The Weeknd with 7.

Other notable nominees include Billie Eilish and Tate McRae, with six nominations; Charli XCX with five; and Alex Warren, Bad Bunny, Doechii, Ed Sheeran, Jelly Roll, Miley Cyrus, and Morgan Wallen, with four nominations each.

Renowned songstress Mariah Carey will be honored as this year’s Video Vanguard Award recipient and is set to perform among a spectacular lineup of artists. Other featured performers include Sabrina Carpenter, Doja Cat, Busta Rhymes, Post Malone, and others.

Voting

Fans can vote for their favorite artists up to ten times a day per category at vote.mtv.com. This year sees the addition of two new categories: Best Country and Best Pop Artist. The 2025 Video Music Awards will stream live on CBS, MTV, and Paramount+ on September 7 at 8 p.m. ET.

For a complete list of the 2025 VMA nominees, click here.

Predictions

Still shot of Billie Eilish in "BIRDS OF A FEATHER" music video.
Billie Eilish – “BIRDS OF A FEATHER” music video. (Courtesy: YouTube)

Video of the Year

One of the most anticipated categories of the show, there are a lot of strong contenders for Video of the Year. Claiming an impressive seven wins at this year’s Grammys, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Kendrick Lamar take this one home for his memorable track “Not Like Us.” Also nominated are two iconic duets, “Die with a Smile” and “APT,” both of which I could easily see claiming the win. Still, I’m personally pulling for Billie Eilish’s “BIRDS OF A FEATHER.”

Artist of the Year

With two of this year’s nominees, Taylor Swift and Beyoncé, competing for the most ever VMA wins, the competition for Artist of the Year is tough. While Swift and Beyoncé both stand a solid chance of winning, my personal pick goes to Lady Gaga. Between her 2025 album Mayhem topping the charts this year, not to mention the theatrical phenomenon that is the Mayhem Ball, Gaga is well-deserving of this title.

Song of the Year

Already, four songs have been knocked out of the running for Song of the Year, leaving the top six. Once again, I’m rooting for Billie Eilish to take this one home. “BIRDS OF A FEATHER” is catchy, well-written, and absolutely had a huge impact since its release. Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars’ “Die with a Smile” is another strong contender here.

Best New Artist

Between catchy hit singles and his first studio album debuting just last month, I’m hoping to see sombr win this one. At just 20 years old, this young artist has definitely made a name for himself. With four overall nominations, another notable pick is Alex Warren.

Best Pop Artist

Given the explosive success of her 2024 album Short N’ Sweet, I think Sabrina Carpenter stands a good chance at claiming victory here. With her newest album, Man’s Best Friend, being released just this past week, Carpenter is absolutely at the forefront of pop music news right now. Ariana Grande is another strong contender.

MTV Push Performance of the Year

Each year, one artist or group who was spotlighted as a part of MTV’s “MTV PUSH Program” is awarded for their outstanding performance. While I can’t say I saw each featured performance this year, I see either KATSEYE or Shaboozey winning this one.

Best Collaboration

This year has seen no shortage of fantastic collabs. Between Kendrick Lamar & SZA, ROSÉ & Bruno Mars, and other outstanding duos, this category is a tough one to predict. Still, I have to give it to Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars for “Die with a Smile.”

Best Pop

Yet again, Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars stand a strong chance here. Not only did “Die with a Smile” already win the Grammy for Best Pop Duo this year, but it also broke the record as the fastest song to reach one billion streams on Spotify. Fan-favorite “APT.” by ROSÉ & Bruno Mars is a strong runner-up.

Best Hip-Hop

As mentioned before, it would be no surprise to see Kendrick Lamar – “Not Like Us” claim this win. With a remarkable landslide success at this year’s Grammys, it honestly would be more shocking if anyone else took home this victory.

Still shot of Kendrick Lamar in "Not Like Us" music video.
Kendrick Lamar – “Not Like Us” music video. (Courtesy: YouTube)

Best R&B

There are several standouts for this year’s best in R&B. I predict that this battle will likely come down to The Weeknd & Playboi Carti or SZA. With her ethereal voice and vulnerable songwriting, I’m pulling for SZA with “Drive.”

Best Alternative

As mentioned before, I would love to see sombr pull this one out for his lyrically introspective song “back to friends.” Another likely winner would be “Messy” by Lola Young, a catchy tune that scaled the charts.

Best Rock

There are plenty of deserving candidates for this year’s Best Rock category. Gauging its popularity among music lovers, I’ll give this one to “The Contract” by Twenty One Pilots, though I could also see a win by Evanescence for “Afterlife.”

Best Latin

Now, I want to preface this by stating that I’m not as familiar with the nominees for Best Latin as other categories. That being said, I see both Bad Bunny and J Balvin as strong contenders. I’m going to give this one to Bad Bunny“Baile INoLVIDABLE.”

Best K-Pop

This year’s K-pop category sees a takeover of BLACKPINK, with all four members receiving individual nominations. Again, K-pop is another genre I’m not as familiar with. I can definitely see JENNIE coming out on top for her hit “like JENNIE.” Featuring Doja Cat and RAYE, another frontrunner is LISA with “Born Again.”

Best Afrobeats

I haven’t personally heard every nominee in this category, but I definitely see Tyla taking this one home. Catchy and fun, “PUSH 2 START” topped the charts in its respective category this year, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it win.

Best Country

Now, if there’s one genre I really don’t know, it’s country (I know, I know, sorry!). Still, if I were to give my best prediction, I would hand this one to either Morgan Wallen’s “Smile” or Chris Stapleton’s “Think I’m in Love with You.”

Best Album

As the overall frontrunner of this year’s VMAs, I think Best Album could (and should) be another win for Lady Gaga. Between sold-out shows and record-breaking success, Mayhem has had a huge impact thus far and absolutely deserves its flowers. I’m rooting for Gaga to take this win.

Best Long Form Video

For Best Long Form Video, there are some strong nominees. Ariana Grande – “brighter days ahead” is my pick. Set in the same timeline as the “we can’t be friends” music video, “brighter days ahead” is a captivating short film rooted in science fiction. I can also see “Hurry Up Tomorrow” by The Weeknd doing well here.

Video for Good

The popular vote for the Video for Good is without a doubt “Guess” by Charli xcx, featuring Billie Eilish. (Every pair of underwear seen in the music video was donated to victims of domestic violence, if you were stuck on the “for good” part!) Still, I also wouldn’t mind seeing Eminem ft. Jelly Roll win this one for “Somebody Save Me.”

Professional Categories

Still shot of "APT." music video by Bruno Mars (left) and ROSÉ (right.)
Bruno Mars (left) and ROSÉ (right) in “APT.” music video. (Courtesy: YouTube)

There are six professional categories for the 2025 MTV VMAs. These categories are not voted on by fans, but instead by music industry experts. Like the already mentioned categories, there is no shortage of phenomenal nominees across the board. With Lady Gaga’s mesmerizing “Abracadabra” video earning nominations in all six categories, I definitely expect to see it take home a few wins and honestly wouldn’t even be surprised at a sweep. Still, here are my individual predictions.

Best Direction

With so many memorable videos nominated for this category, this one is a toss-up. Between Kendrick Lamar, Ariana Grande, and Lady Gaga, whoever wins this one is more than deserving. Personally, I think it comes down to Lamar and Gaga.

Best Art Direction

Once again, “Abracadabra” is a strong contender for this category. With insane costuming, outstanding choreography, and an introduction to “Mother Mayhem” herself, this video is nothing short of a visual spectacle.

Best Cinematography

For Best Cinematography, my first instinct is Ariana Grande for “brighter days ahead.” Still, it’s hard to rule out great videos like “Not Like Us” and “Abracadabra.” I guess we’ll let the industry professionals talk here.

Best Editing

For Best Editing, I can once again see a few different nominees seizing the win. I think Charli xcx – “Guess featuring Billie Eilish” and Sabrina Carpenter – “Manchild” are both great candidates here. Both are visually interesting and put together well.

Best Choreography

This one has to go to “Abracadabra” by Lady Gaga. In typical Gaga fashion, the choreography for the video is mesmerizing, over-the-top, and attention-grabbing. I’m pulling for her to claim the win.

Best Visual Effects

I would actually like to see ROSÉ & Bruno Mars win this one for their fun visual effects in “APT.” The music video is simple, upbeat, and eye-catching. It exemplifies exactly how a catchy pop song should make you feel.

A still shot from Lady Gaga's "Abracadabra" music video, depicting Gaga and backup dancers in all white.
Lady Gaga – “Abracadabra” music video. (Courtesy: YouTube)

Social Categories

The VMAs have also announced two social categories for this year’s show: Best Group and Song of the Summer. Voting for these categories will be hosted on MTV’s Instagram Story. Fans can vote up until Sunday, September 7, at 11:00 a.m. ET.

Best Group

With 16 nominees battling it out bracket-style for Best Group, competition will be tough. Voting will be conducted live on MTV’s Instagram Story in three rounds, with the final round being a tap to vote.

Given their recent rise in popularity, the group I foresee coming out on top is KATSEYE. Voting for this category closes Saturday, September 6, at 11:00 a.m. ET.

Song of the Summer

The Song of the Summer category introduces another 16 standout candidates. It will be a one-round tap to vote, with voting opening Saturday, September 6, at 11:00 a.m. ET.

This category has no shortage of catchy tunes, but I see Sabrina Carpenter claiming the win for “Manchild.” A solid second choice would be Benson Boone with “Mystical Magical.” Voting closes Sunday, September 7, at 11:00 a.m. ET.

Still shot of Sabrina Carpenter in "Manchild" music video.
Sabrina Carpenter – “Manchild” music video. (Courtesy: YouTube)

Looking forward

With an incredible lineup of nominees and performers, the 2025 VMAs will undoubtedly be a spectacular show highlighting a memorable year in music. Given the success she’s seen this year, I expect this to be a huge accolade for Lady Gaga to add to her resume.

Voting is open through September 5 at 6 p.m. ET for all categories except Best New Artist, which will remain open through the show. Once again, the 2025 Video Music Awards will stream live on CBS, MTV, and Paramount+ on September 7 at 8 p.m. ET. Who do you hope to see win?

Written By

Hello! My name is Sarah Campbell. I am an entertainment journalist based out of Los Angeles, California. I am passionate about all things film, TV and celebrity news!

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