Keir Starmer is a Prime Minister on the ropes. His personal popularity has been in free fall since his landslide victory in 2024, becoming the most unpopular Prime Minister in history.
But now the release of the Epstein Files has caused another unneeded headache for the Prime Minister. Peter Mandelson, Britain’s US Ambassador, had a far deeper relationship with Epstein than was originally known.
The most recent release showed Mandelson had financially benefited from his relationship while leaking government information to the sex trafficker. Starmer isn’t unique in this; the files have caused a stir all across Europe, from France to Slovakia. Norway, in particular, has seen numerous high-profile individuals implicated, including a former Prime Minister of their own.
It seems as though the impacts and consequences are being seen everywhere but in America.
Europe in The Epstein Files
Despite the Epstein Files being released in America, begrudgingly so, by Trump’s Department of Justice, it is in Europe that the files have caused the biggest fallout so far.
Royals, ex-government ministers, current government ministers, political advisors, composers, business leaders, all have been implicated.
In Norway, the Crown Princess was found to have been in communication with Epstein from 2011
This was three years after his conviction for child sexual abuse.
A vote was subsequently put forward to abolish the monarchy, although it was resoundingly defeated.
Norway’s former Prime Minister Thorbjørn Jagland has also been charged with gross corruption over his dealings with Epstein.
Norwegian diplomat Mona Juul is being investigated over an alleged will, which gave each of her children five million dollars.
In Slovakia, Miroslav Lajcak, Prime Minister Robert Fico’s security advisor, resigned after text messages from 2018 were released. In the message,s Miroslav and Epstein discussed women, in one exchange asking if he could have the “MI girl”, and an upcoming meeting with Russia’s foreign minister.
France has also had its fair share of mentions in the files.
The composer Frederic Chaslin appeared in the files, reporting on girls in Paris he had ‘found’ for Epstein.
Former French culture minister Jack Lang was named nearly 700 times in the files. He held 50% of shares in a company linked to Epstein, which was based in the Virgin Islands, a well-known tax haven.
Epstein’s web of connections spanned continents, leaving few countries untarnished. But nowhere has an incumbent government been hit as hard as in the United Kingdom.
Peter Mandelson’s Epstein Problem
It is said that a week is a long time in politics.
For Keir Starmer, it’s looking more like each day is turning into a grueling marathon.
His US ambassador, Peter Mandelson, was dismissed in September after the files revealed that his relationship with Epstein had been deeper than originally known.
Further revelations showing that Mandelson had informed Epstein of sensitive government information back in 2008 called into further question the Prime Minister’s judgment.
Epstein also gave Mandelson £75,000 between 2003 and 2004, with no real reason made apparent for the payments. Starmer claims that Mandelson lied during the appointment process, and that he gave the impression that he “barely knew” Epstein.
Despite this, a simple Google search would have provided the Prime Minister with a laundry list of connections.
It was public knowledge that Mandelson had remained friends with Epstein after his 2008 conviction. Mandelson left a message in the now infamous birthday book, where he called Epstein his ‘best pal‘.
He had even lived in Epstein’s New York apartment for a time in 2009, while Epstein was in prison. All of this was in the public domain by November 2025, when Mandelson was appointed. It seems incredibly unlikely that Starmer was entirely unaware of any of this, even if Mandelson had misled him.
Mandelson has been forced to resign twice before.
First as Trade and Industry secretary in 1998, after failing to declare a loan of £373,000 he had received from a fellow Labour MP. The second occurrence was in 2001, as Northern Ireland secretary, for using his position to influence passport application processes.
Morgan McSweeney’s Fall
So who is to take the fall for such a blunder?
That would be Morgan McSweeney, the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff, who had originally pushed for Mandelson’s appointment.
McSweeney is a strange figure in Labour politics. In 2010, McSweeney was a key organiser against the neo-Nazi British National Party in Barking and Dagenham.
His strategy of tacking to the right saw Labour beat the BNP, with none of the BNP’s twelve councillors being reelected.
This experience strengthened McSweeney’s view that the only way to defeat the right is by capitulation to them on certain issues.
A strategy that has put him wildly out of step with a vast majority of the party.
Nonetheless, was a key part of the Starmer project, perhaps even the driving force, allegedly even being the one who convinced Starmer to run for Labour leader in the first place back in 2020.
He has been Starmer’s number one advisor since he became leader, and someone on whom he has relied heavily throughout his leadership. He was the brains behind Labour’s landslide win in 2024, acting as Starmer’s strategist.
Once in government, he was quickly promoted to Chief of Staff after the resignation of Sue Gray. Since then, Morgan McSweeney had become a power player in Downing Street, having vast swathes of influence over policy and the Labour Party more broadly.
That was until he resigned only three days after Keir Starmer assured the Commons that he had full confidence in his closest advisor. As McSweeney had been the one to push for Mandelson’s appointment as the US ambassador, leading to him taking the fall for now.
For many, there is no Starmer without McSweeney; the two are almost indistinguishable as political operators.
Pretenders To The Throne
The issue facing the MPs who want to remove Starmer is that there is no clear successor.
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham would have been the surefire choice.
Enormously popular with Labour MPs and members, he’s also the only Labour figure to have a positive approval rating according to YouGov.
The only caveat being that he was blocked from standing as an MP in the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election. In an attempt to block a potential challenger from entering parliament, Labour’s National Executive Committee denied Burnham’s bid to run in the seat.
Angela Rayner, the former Deputy Prime Minister, is another possible contender.
She hails from a similar political tradition to Burnham and would probably have the best chances with the membership vote.
She has been dealing with her own scandals, however, having to resign after underpaying stamp duty on her home. It remains a huge sore spot that could hurt her if she were to challenge for the leadership.
Another candidate and someone who hasn’t been shy about his leadership ambitions in the past is Health Secretary Wes Streeting. Firmly on the right wing of the Labour Party, Streeting would be Britain’s first openly gay Prime Minister if he were to win.
Wes isn’t without his downsides, however, being close to Mandelson and possibly too much of a Starmer continuity candidate to be able to turn the Party’s fortunes around.
Finally, a somewhat unusual name being thrown around is Al Carns. A freshly elected MP, Carns spent his career in the Royal Marines with no real political background to speak of.
A clean break from the current government could be what Labour needs, but it would be a huge risk to make a man with no political experience Prime Minister.
Starmer’s continuing woes
Starmer’s position has been considered untenable for a while.
With Labour languishing in the polls and Starmer’s personal unpopularity, a leadership challenge has been speculated for some time.
Now, with the Mandelson scandal breaking, things are boiling over.
The leader of Scottish Labour, Anas Sawar, had called on Starmer to resign in the aftermath of McSweeney’s resignation, saying there had been “too many mistakes”.
Many Labour MPs are also reportedly very unhappy with the Prime Minister.
Now polling worse than even Liz Truss at her lowest low, Starmer’s exit seems inevitable.
If Starmer is to go, he would be the UK’s sixth Prime Minister since 2016. Starmer’s promises of stability and normality seeming so distant, the days of Britain’s leaders staying in office for a decade or more may be all but over.
